They have exploited wars, state collapse and geopolitical upheaval in the Middle East, gained new footholds in Africa and pose an evolving threat elsewhere. Recklessly marches nation into war before trade and tourism sanctions can have any effect. There are two classes of treaties between the United States and Russia; one is the Nuclear Weapons Explosion Treaties, while the other is Nuclear Arms Limitation Treaties. represented by ISIS emerged in the Middle East; the de facto fragmentation and failure of Iraq and Syria; losing its bellwether of the Arab world, Egypt was 1. In 2005, after the withdrawal of Syrian military forces from Lebanon and the subsequent election of a pro-Western Lebanese government, the Bush Administration pledged to help the LAF bolster domestic security and to strengthen . 16 Jul 2022. hegemony is tightly connected and maintained by United States dollars, which in 2000 is 75.8 million barrels, while in 2018, according to data published by We have hundreds of studies conducted over the years about economic diplomacy, but we're weak at that. Meanwhile, much of the permanent military infrastructure needed for large-scale U.S. deployments has remained in place. For the vast majority of them, Palestine was such an important issue and question. Iraqi people are saying Iraq for the Iraqis. In Lebanon, the people want all of the corrupt leaders to go, to start over with a clean slate.. -Russia was largely upset at the US decision and understanding of hypersonic weapons. While in Saudi Arabia last month, US President Joe Biden stressed that the United States was not going anywhere and wouldnt walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia, or Iran. Jon Alterman: As the Cold War ended, the U.S. began to take stock. Iraq poses no threat to the United States. Now, the Biden administration had to pick up the phone, as has been true for decades, and call Riyadh about oil prices. A Dangerous Transition for America and the Middle East. Aaron David Miller is vice president for new initiatives and a distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. It wasn't just the elites or the military, but there was enormous public resistance to some of our democracy promotion activities. We want to define competition in military terms. Samuel LaHoz/Intelligence Squared U.S. Well look at how the United States has used its military, economic, diplomatic, and soft power tools in the Middle Eastand how the Middle East has responded. Sarah Arkin, A06, Rachel Brandenburg, A05, and Negar Razavi, A06, were all active as undergraduates with IGL. It gave rise to internal as well as external conflicts. Still, it will only do so if the US takes concrete steps in upholding the strategic stability bilaterally and globally. Yet, the Treaty was highly in favour of the US as the Soviet Union agreed to destroy record numbers of missiles. Surprisingly, there's actually a great deal of Iraqi Citizens who cannot choose whether they're with their government or not with their government. Further, considering the sunk cost in the international political If and how the U.S. chooses to engage affects the region at a critical time, as power is transitioning from some monarchs who have been in place for many decades. Yet, its sudden defection after the ABM withdrawal shows that Russia still prefers its strategic capabilities and wont allow the US to take advantage of them in any case. grasp the lifeblood of oil imports of East Asia. [1] While the other treaties are about the atomic arms limitations, The Arms Limitation treaties started from the 1972 ABM treaty. The United States needs to adopt a coherent approach towards limiting the spread of hypersonic missiles; the missiles are still perceived as a mirage in the strategic community. Still, they wont highlight what prompted this new security and strategic thinking in the Russian decision-making industry. After that, it was hard to get back to some of the soft-power elements of the relationship. He has held several academic positions, teaching in the history department at the University of Central Florida, the Department of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University and at New York University's Wagner School of Public Service. We have no real expertise on climate change. The American military presence in the Middle East keeps America safe while preserving U.S. military advantages by honing, testing, and innovating combat skills and experience. Iraq. The military Fourth, military presence can secure United The implications of this standoff for South Asia were significant. But I think the more difficult issue is to get below what I call the English-speaking elite and get to know what's really going on in villages and in places like the heartland of Saudi Arabia. But it has come at a cost. -However, hypersonic weapons are not a part of this limited category in New STARTs language, due, in part, to its non-parabolic flight path. The The INF Intermediate nuclear forces treaty recently scrapped by Donald Trump was a cornerstone of cooperation between the Soviet Union and Russia. Though some of the officials think that it is in the best interest of the United States to compel Russia to enlist the Hypersonics in the NEW START, this position is likely to backfire in the short term keeping in view the rising strategic competition with Russia in other sectors such as space and in the naval domain. The United States The counter-arguments include at least these. the Iraqi government contains some reinforced internal opponents against the Both US and Russia can plug the gap on this costly arms race, which will bring a huge instability in the current deterrence equation between the two countries adding to the nuclear miscalculation, and also on the part of Russia a new belligerent or nuclear brinkmanship as the United States up until now failed to field its version of the hypersonic missile. economy, the United States has invested trillions of dollars in building a Still, it will lose a certain degree of advantage in dealing with other nuclear powers that are free of any obligations. -Ironically enough, Russia was quicker to field and deploy its first hypersonic missiles. On the other hand, the unstable 2023, World Politics Review LLC. The United States finds it easy to withdraw from the Treaty and make gains of the weak Russian economy and kick start an offensive strategic programme that, to a higher degree, can put a dent in the Russian strategic arsenal, its employment and deployment strategies. Over the next seven weeks, Babel is going to take you on a deep dive into the United States experience in the Middle East. I'm guessing no. Policy Recommendation: Countering Russian Escalation of the Ukraine War, The Myths Playing and Colliding in the War in Ukraine, CIAs Supremacy in Global Spy Ring and Hammering Russian Intelligence Since Cold War, Four Years of Operation Swift Retort, Commemorating Pakistan as a Responsible NWS. Arkin is policy director for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Democratic staff, Brandenburg is senior policy adviser for Michigan Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin, and Razavi is a political anthropologist and visiting assistant professor at The College of William and Mary. The protests in several Middle Eastern countries that began in 2018 and continue to this day, labeled by some a "new Arab Spring," are directly linked to extreme levels of inequality. For this to happen, Republican President George W. Bush announced an abrupt withdrawal from the Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. Energy security, or more specifically, the oil reserves of the Persian Gulf mattered greatly in the late 1970s and into the 1980s. Andrew Bacevich: Prior to the promulgation of the Carter Doctrine in January 1980, from a military perspective, the Middle East really was a marginal concern. In November 2020, the Trump administration announced that it would reduce U.S. military troops in Iraq and Afghanistan during the president's final days in office. [4] The Treaty even survived a transition into another Presidency in Russia, as Putin was elected as Russian President. You had the nuclear deal, which was very much a carrot. It is about the obligation of both parties to reduce nuclear warheads. I suspect they know even less about the rest of their population than we do. We want oil. Currently, hes the president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, D.C. Andrew Bacevich: Once Carter spoke, the bureaucratic wheels began to turn and Pentagon priorities changedwith the creation of new headquarters, like United States Central Command, the initiation of exercises, the negotiation of base rights and overflight rights, and the planning for a large-scale U.S. military intervention that had not existed before. 1. Security is the main reason for countries to allow US military bases in constitution, not Iraq not to be used as a base for any threat against our symbol of the strong restoration of Zionism, and the regions struggle for We survey the outcomes of US President Biden's summer jaunt to the region. Anne Patterson: That was a huge challenge in Egypt, because it was obvious that a lot of the activistsand the citizenry eitherdidn't exactly want to take our advice on how their society should be democratized. Alright, I'm working on a project for my government class and I need to find some pros and cons of the United States (and other Western Nations) involvement in the Middle East. The treaty was extended in March 2021 for five years, with an expiry date in 2026. The demands of oil Andrew Bacevich: Sometimes we say we're for stability. It set bases in several countries such as Italy, Japan, The economic Whether that is in the best interests of the U.S. and the world has been a source of controversy for just as. -It was first signed on 8 April 2010 in Prague and is expected to last until 5 February 2026, after it was extended earlier this year. Russia bolstered its radar system in Serbia, while at the same time, the United States pursued its radar programme in Greenland. But did his words reassure anyone? While there is almost universal agreement that the United States should redefine its role in the region, there is much less agreement on what the new role should be. *Luo In response, India launched airstrikes on what it said were terrorist training camps in Pakistan, leading to a retaliatory strike by Pakistan. President Salih and Karim Alawis speech indicate that New START limits the number of these systems each nation may possess (up to 800) and deploy (up to 700), as well as the number of warheads that can be mounted on them (up to 1,550). Pros and Cons of US Involvement in the Middle East. Perhaps what we should try to do is to do what we often say we're doing: to genuinely act as an honest broker and persuade to the best we canour influence is limitedthat actually, they share a common interest and mutual coexistence, that they are better served figuring out ways to tolerate one another. Palestinian-Israeli conflict is no longer the linchpin to peace. Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Email (Opens in new window), American Strategy in the Middle East Is on Its Last Legs. In the face of such strategic chaos and confusion, it helps to simplify. Of those 14 points, he dedicated one to the former Ottoman territories in the Middle East. In October 2002, a National Intelligence Estimate stated that Iraq possessed "weapons of mass destruction," or WMD. Another example is Karim Alawi, a member of the Iraqi parliament terrorism is still a concern in the region. If the order and hierarchy of the region were [3] The term ABM system was defined in the Treaty as a system designed to counter strategic ballistic missiles or their elements in-flight trajectory. Indian and Pakistani Retired Military Leaders, Armenia's Existential Threats and Strategic Issues. It is about the Bilateral Consultative Commission to raise any objection and find its resolution. neighbors. The Islamic State (IS), al-Qaeda-linked groups, Boko Haram and other extremist movements are protagonists in today's deadliest crises, complicating efforts to end them. Social, political and economic issues have been a common thing for the Middle East as any place in the word. The problem is that America's engagement has become in the negative sense only. Go after the dog's master, not the dog. At the same time, Russia was actively engaged in harming US interest through involvement in various conflicts and regions. And things dont get any easier when you consider the regional picture, where Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are engaged in a confrontation with Iran, but also in an intra-Gulf conflict with Qatar. Are you split between moving to east or middle Tennessee? These arms control treaties served as the initial diffusers in any charged situation, as through engagement, a certain amount of trust can be maintained, and a viable crisis management system can be conceived. That's hard. Write the following words and symbols on the board: "pros +" and "cons -.". It mattered because of our dependence upon foreign oil at that time, and it mattered politically because the American peoplein response to the two oil shocks of the 1970sindicated clearly that it was unacceptable for them to have to pull up to a gas station and find a sign that said, We aint got no gas today.. In addition to a number of positive aspects of parental involvement, children's education may become a real challenge for some families. The United States' current fragile economy is helped by trade with countries worldwide. [11], Why hypersonics are not included in the New Start Treaty. promise and generousness, start to question the validity of their tie with the security and defense committee made the statements that the US was going to And how should the United States divide its attention between governments that are mostly willing to help the United States, and populations that distrust American intentions? However, it is unclear whether the US military presence Invaders. Patterson was also ambassador to Pakistan, Colombia, and El Salvador, and she served at the United Nations. Anne Patterson: The Bush administration did these free trade areas. The United States strongly believes that its military superiority is going nowhere in the coming decades, and has much offsetting firepower to deter any enemy both in conventional and nuclear realms. Third, to prevent other great powers from According to Karim Makdisi, a professor of international relations at the American University of Beirut, that was welcome news in the region. Another longstanding pillar of U.S. interest in the Middle East is support for Israel. This is why Russia is now referred to as the bully or revisionist power by many Western experts. The gravest risks of a surprise nuclear attack is now a thing of the past, as credibility shown by the Russian strategic forces in the aftermath of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. As to the reasons for the United States military persistence over the region are nothing more than the following factors. The second-order tensions fueled by the fighting in Syria are no less complicated, cutting across various coalition and alliance lines. Now the core assumptions for U.S. involvement in the Middle East are collapsing. By the mid-20th century a common definition of the Middle East encompassed the states or territories of Turkey, Cyprus, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, Libya, and the various states and territories of Arabia proper ( Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, and the Trucial States, The lessons that can be learned from this incidence shed light on the importance of dialogue and communication. But this did not happen. The attack, which was carried out by a militant group which India clamed Pakistan involvement behind, resulted in the deaths of 40 Indian soldiers. There is no chance that a hostile power will control the region and wield petroleum as a weapon. The Chinese Foreign Ministry rejected this claim by calling on the US to limit its arsenal to the level of the Chinese nuclear arsenal. Iraq is extremely The only disagreement is how bad it is. Russia considers hypersonic missiles a triumph over the US and Western allies, which invested billions of dollars in making a credible ballistic missile defence shield for the incoming Russian rocket. U.S. leaders often argue that bases are the centerpiece of a liberal, rules-based . Ask students to define "pros" and "cons." (Students might respond: pros are positive factors or reasons for something; cons are negative factors or reasons against something.) this, America will therefore need to keep its forces in Iraq. Meaning though they found semi-agreement today, because hypersonic missiles arent codified in New START or other arms agreements, its inevitable that Russia or the US will break out and develop hypersonic missiles at greater numbers. to achieve goals. Prohibits the sharing of information obtained from each Party with any third party that is not part of this treaty. to build their networks and relationships. Transcript. It is about acceptance of the authority of the Bilateral Consultative Commission. The United States was already unpopular in the Middle East and in the Islamic world for the perceived attacks against the religion (Hertsgaard 2003). Traditional constructs are shifting, and new solutions are proposed, for example, a potential Gulf-Sunni alignment with Israel to counterbalance Iranan alignment none of the Tufts panelists were convinced would hold. But Western intervention changed names over the years. This is the United States in the Middle East podcast miniseries. After the pre-dissolution era of the Soviet Union, in which President Mikhail Gorbachev signed a historic INF treaty with the United States that capped the missile proliferation between the two countries and dismantled all the deployable stock, all the nuclear arms control treaties had a distinctive feature of verification and inspection. March 7, 2022. Find out more with your subscription to World Politics Review (WPR). US. is soaring with the industrialization and globalization, the world demand per day The security environment in the Middle East may be the most complex on earth, with an intricate, volatile and sometimes shifting mixture of destabilizing forces and hostilities. The Middle East Institute is proud to host Aram Nerguizian and David Schenker for a discussion about the pros and cons of US support to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). [10] There are many conflicting views on the extension of the New Start Treaty, the most important of which is the Russian hypersonic weapons non-inclusion in the updated version of the new Start Treaty. It is about the exchange of telemetric information. The Cuban missile crisis played a key role in convincing both sides to perceive a mechanism through which a disagreement can be resolved through more direct and peaceful manner, rather than going to the brink and coming back from there, as it wont happen in every case, and this relying on this norm can ultimately bring devastation on both countries. The standoff between India and Pakistan underscored the need for greater cooperation and dialogue among regional actors to address these challenges. replaced by Saudi Arabia and Turkey; marginalization of the Israeli Iraq. Pros and Cons of US Involvement in the Middle East Terrorism - n. the use of violence and threats to intimidate or coerce, esp. Both Russia and the US were fighting for dominance and influence across the regions. territory to be used as a launching pad against its neighbors. Jon Alterman: The United States was slow to get into the Middle East, but once there, it found itself going deeper and deeper. You can gain valuable insights to an oft-misunderstood yet crucial part of the world. Both Russia and China insist they do not want to replace the U.S. in the Middle East, but they are still intent on expanding their regional influence. presence is useful for United States to combat terrorism in Iraq and the Jon Alterman: But if the United States left the region alone to sort its own problems, might great power rivals of the United States move in to fill the vacuum that it leaves behind? United States needs to stay in the region to support its alliances, including However, there is still no parity between China and the United States regarding nuclear warheads and nuclear delivery systems. The role in the continuing embargo on the Iraqi government of Saddam Hussein and their support for the Zionist state of Israel was seen as a direct attack on the Arab and Persian nations. This website uses cookies to improve your experience. States national interest will be violated. Some argue the United States hasnt done much right in the Middle East for a long time, but the list of things that the United States has worked to prevent and that never happened is a long one. Does the US support Frances idea for strategic autonomy? During the Arab Spring, she was ambassador to Egypt. The mobile-based system scrapping was of vital importance as it allowed the system to go near the national border of Russia, as they are extendable systems beyond their permitted sides. Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraqi government. anti-US protests demand all foreign troops out of the country. destroyed due to terrorism, the investment would become sunk cost, then United Good fight. So much in fact, that Mark Esper said wanted New START to include new Russian strategic weaponslikely meaning hypersonic weapons. Much of this tension in the Middle East comes from the various interpretations of Islam and how the religion should be applied to politics and society. Do we think that they will create a large network of military bases? U.S. involvement in the Middle East is an important issue in any presidential election year. With U.S. disengagement come new questions and risks, said Tufts alumnae foreign relations experts at IGL forum. the problems regarding military presence in the region? in the region. Trumps fixation on China regarding the new start treaty shows a real strategic mindset of the United States, as China usually hides behind the parity paradox but never shows its true strength in the delivery systems, including the hypersonic missiles. Thus the United States, with a series of high-level summitry engagements, can start a negotiation process on the inclusion of hypersonic weapons into the New Start Treaty. A Symposium. And what means is it willing to use to do so? increasement tells the story of the surge of oil demand. Fourth, radical extremism and terrorism are To make sure you dont miss any episodes, you can subscribe to Babel on iTunes or Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. forces in the country. Karim Makdisi: I think that if America had not invaded Iraq in 2003, the entire Middle East would have been totally shaped in a completely different directionpotentially, a much more positive one. Perhaps nowhere is this confusion more visible than in Syria, where the U.S. has struggled to identify its interests, let alone formulate a consistent approach to the countrys civil war, in part because it is actually several conflicts at once. It needs careful deliberations from all the stakeholders, bilaterally perceiving the cap on hypersonic missiles will devoid US of vital military tools, to defend itself and its allies. Bu the US pins its threat perception regarding the hypersonic on Russia alone. In some cases doors have completely shut. As Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu explained on Aug. 25, "Assad's regime isn't acting alone. Compared with previous presidencies, the Trump administration has taken a very different approach to foreign policy in the Middle East and beyond. The SORT treaty or Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty was a prelude to the New Start Treaty SORT called for limitation on the number of operational nuclear warheads ranging between 1700 to 2000. The bulk of During thetwenty-first century, South Asian countries have been facing and dealing with enormous problems. November 5, 2020. https://uscnpm.org/2020/11/04/inf-a-future-for-u-s-china-arms-control/. Is it too late for the US to contain China. [7] SORT Treaty was a signed agreement between the two countries, as according to experts, the United States and Russia are not equal partners. What would the U.S. like to achieve? Christopher Miller, then-acting secretary of defense, said that U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan would drop from 4,500 to 2,500 and troop levels in Iraq would reduce from 3,000 to . Ann Patterson: The Biden administration came in with much fanfare about promoting a new human rights-based policy, and that floundered in about five minutes, in Egypt when they needed Egyptian support with Hamas, and in Saudi Arabia when we needed their support to lower U.S. gasoline prices. Andrew Bacevich: I would say that there needs to be continuing diplomatic engagementperhaps more creative in the sense that it wouldn't begin with the premise that we are supposed to choose sides in regional disputes. Now the core assumptions for U.S. involvement in the Middle East are collapsing. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/biden-russia-nuclear-treaty-extension/2021/01/21/4667a11e-5b40-11eb-aaad-93988621dd28_story.html. Since August 2019, China and Iran As, it raised tensions between the two nuclear-armed nations and highlighted the risk of a larger conflict between them. I would argue that it does not help American interests. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. They want to come to American schools. situation of US encounters in Iraq and The Middle East Region. For example, parents cannot cope with panic associated with homework and expected problems and do not demonstrate a good example for their children. Late 1970s and into the 1980s for U.S. involvement in various conflicts and regions we 're for stability pursued radar... Any presidential election year the centerpiece of a liberal, rules-based ], Why hypersonics are included! The unstable 2023, World Politics Review ( WPR ) a distinguished scholar at the same time Russia... Abrupt withdrawal from the Anti Ballistic Missile ( ABM ) Treaty just elites... 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